OPEC+ countries decided on only a moderate> production increase for November due to concerns about a potential supply surplus in the global oil market. According to sources within the group, the slowdown in global demand growth and the rise in non-OPEC production are among the main reasons for this cautious step.
At Sunday’s meeting, OPEC+ members decided on an additional 137,000 barrels per day of production for November. This was the lowest level since the group launched its increases in April.
Rystad Energy and former OPEC official Jorge Leon said, “OPEC+ acted cautiously seeing how tense the market had become,” adding that fears of oversupply were a decisive factor in the decision.
Last week, Brent oil prices fell 8% to below $65. This followed news that OPEC+ was planning larger increases.
Brent, which has been trading in the $60-70 range since April, is quite far from its target of $82 at the beginning of 2025.Market Share and Strategy
Although OPEC+ officially emphasizes that its decisions are based on the supply-demand balance, according to sources, Saudi Arabia‘s priority is to regain market share.
Planned production increases since April total 2.7 million per day barrels, which is approximately 2.5% of global demand. However, the group was only able to reach 75% of this target, as many producers have already reached their capacity limits. A significant portion of this year’s supply increase was absorbed thanks to China’s stockpiling and summer season fuel demand. However, analysts point to the risk of a new supply surplus due to decreased demand and increased production in the fall.
Global Outlook
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day in 2026. However, OPEC’s own estimates indicate that a deficit of 700,000 barrels could occur if current production levels are maintained. According to JP Morgan data, global oil stocks increased by 123 million barrels in September. In particular, China accounted for more than a third of the global inventory increase.
Furthermore, oil exports from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait and Oman increased by 1.3 million barrels/day in September compared to the previous month.
Analysts note that unpredictable developments such as sanctions against Russia or Ukrainian attacks disrupting exports could tighten the market again.
