Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 6% and Mondelez International dropped 4.5% before the open on Wednesday, after both companies issued downbeat sales outlooks that highlighted weakening consumer demand and higher input costs.
Pressure is mounting on lower-income households, which have cut discretionary spending amid elevated prices, delays in food assistance benefits, and a cooling labor market. The pullback is increasingly visible across the consumer staples and dining landscape.
Several large consumer goods groups—including Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and PepsiCo—have responded by lowering entry price points in an effort to retain cost-conscious shoppers.
At Chipotle, soaring beef costs are weighing on margins. The burrito chain plans menu price increases of 1%–2% this year and expects 2026 same-store sales to be roughly flat, signaling no near-term rebound in demand.
“The top-line guide was a disappointment and suggests underlying restaurant demand has not improved yet,” analysts at Piper Sandler said. Chipotle previously warned that spending would remain pressured into early 2026, particularly among U.S. households earning under $100,000—a cohort representing about 40% of its sales.
Mondelez, owner of Cadbury, also flagged a muted year ahead as elevated cocoa prices collide with cooling shopper demand. Cocoa prices surged 160% in 2024 before easing, but the company has already locked in 2026 supply at rates above current market levels, limiting near-term price relief.
Consumers—especially in the U.S.—are trading down and shifting to value channels after repeated price hikes, pressuring volumes. “The muted FY26 outlook is objectively disappointing and back-half weighted,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said, noting that the implied volume recovery will be hard to achieve.
