SoftBank is set to post a strong quarterly gain from its OpenAI stake, as investors assess how it will finance an expanding artificial intelligence push.
Despite OpenAI’s multi-billion-dollar deals, persistent losses have unsettled sentiment, raising concerns over funding sustainability and spillover risks for closely linked tech investors.
SoftBank invested over $30 billion in OpenAI in 2025, lifting its stake to about 11%, and is discussing up to $30 billion more in the latest round.
Analysts increasingly view SoftBank as a public proxy for OpenAI, warning of concentration risk and potential balance-sheet pressure if funding needs persist.
Estimates suggest a $4.45 billion investment gain from a December tranche, with quarterly net income forecasts ranging widely from profit to loss.
Shares remain volatile, up about 2% this year but down 15% over three months, as markets scrutinize asset sales and leverage.
SoftBank has sold liquid holdings, including Nvidia and T-Mobile stakes, and increased debt, pushing leverage ratios higher despite remaining borrowing capacity.
While OpenAI demand stays strong, intensifying AI competition has narrowed its perceived edge, tempering expectations for long-term dominance.
