Shell fell short of fourth-quarter profit expectations as weaker oil prices weighed on results, but the energy major kept its share buyback programme intact, easing concerns over shareholder returns.
Adjusted net profit dropped 11% year-on-year to $3.3 billion, below the $3.5 billion consensus, marking the lowest quarterly level since early 2021. The miss comes amid softer oil and gas prices and growing expectations of a crude and LNG supply glut.
Performance at Shell’s integrated gas and marketing divisions also lagged forecasts, while losses in the chemicals and products unit were deeper than expected, reflecting weak oil trading and a broader downturn in global chemicals markets.
Shares slipped 1.9% in early trading, underperforming the European energy index, as investors digested the earnings miss alongside mixed operational signals.
Despite the pressure, Shell maintained robust shareholder payouts. Buybacks combined with $2.1 billion in dividends lifted total distributions over the past four quarters to 52% of operating cash flow, above the company’s 40%–50% target range.
Chief Financial Officer Sinead Gorman said the rolling 12-month payout framework was “sacrosanct,” underscoring management’s commitment to capital returns. Shell also raised its quarterly dividend by 4% and reported $5.1 billion in cost cuts toward its 2028 target.
Cash flow from operations reached $9.44 billion, beating expectations but down sharply from a year earlier. Analysts flagged a decline in reserve life to 7.8 years, a move that could intensify scrutiny over Shell’s M&A strategy for reserve replacement.
