Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell by nearly half in January from a year earlier, dropping to their lowest level since July 2020, according to data from the country’s finance ministry.
The sharp decline reflects lower global crude prices and a stronger rouble, dealing a blow to a key pillar of the state budget as fiscal pressures intensify.
January revenue totaled 393.3 billion roubles ($5.1 billion), down sharply from 447.8 billion roubles in December and marking a steep year-on-year contraction.
Oil and gas proceeds remain the single largest cash source for the Kremlin, accounting for nearly a quarter of federal budget income—much of which has been absorbed by elevated defence and security spending since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022.
The weakness comes as Russia grapples with widening fiscal strains. The federal budget posted a deficit of 5.6 trillion roubles, or 2.6% of GDP, in 2025.
Authorities project oil and gas revenues of 8.92 trillion roubles for the full year, while total budget revenues in 2026 are estimated at 40.283 trillion roubles.
The longer-term trend remains concerning. Last year, Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell 24% to 8.48 trillion roubles—the lowest annual level since 2020.
With commodity prices under pressure and currency dynamics working against exporters, analysts say volatility in energy income is likely to remain a central risk for Russia’s public finances in the months ahead.
