From Japan to Brazil, a packed election calendar is set to inject fresh uncertainty into global markets already unsettled by shifting U.S. policy signals and persistent geopolitical tension. Investors are watching closely as key votes across Asia, Europe, and Latin America threaten to reshape fiscal priorities, debt dynamics, and reform agendas.
Japan:
Japan’s snap election on February 8 ranks among the country’s most unpredictable in years. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is seeking to leverage her personal appeal to advance expansionary fiscal policies in the world’s most indebted developed economy by debt-to-GDP measures. Recent polls show a slight dip in approval, while investors brace for continued pressure on government bonds. Some analysts expect 10-year yields to climb toward 3%, up from just over 2%.
Colombia:
Colombians could head to the polls up to three times starting in March to elect new lawmakers and a president to replace Gustavo Petro. While equities outperformed regional peers last year, bond investors are betting that Latin America’s rightward political drift could extend to Colombia, restoring more orthodox economic policies. A victory by Petro-aligned candidate Iván Cepeda could, however, open the door to institutional changes affecting the central bank and courts.
Hungary:
April’s election offers the opposition its strongest chance in years to unseat Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after a 16-year run. Rising living costs dominate voter concerns, while pre-election fiscal giveaways have strained public finances. The centre-right Tisza party has pledged to mend ties with the EU and unlock funding—moves that analysts say could release €10 billion in investment and lower risk premiums.
United Kingdom:
Local elections rarely move global markets, but May’s vote could be different. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour government trails in polls to Reform UK, and recent bond market jitters highlight investor sensitivity to any sign of leadership change. Economists caution that even a new leader would face limited room for fiscal expansion, with the next general election due by August 2029.
