Since Donald Trump’s re-election as president in 2024, global markets have experienced a year filled with high volatility and policy shocks. During this period, stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies reached record highs.
Following Trump’s victory, the dollar, the stock market, and bitcoin rose rapidly. However, throughout the year, trade agreements and new tariffs disrupted global supply chains. Markets have now adapted to Trump’s tendency to “threaten and then back down.” This situation gave rise to the “TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)” strategy among investors.
The dollar index, despite its sharp post-election rise, subsequently lost 4% of its value. However, thanks to Trump’s crypto-friendly policies, Bitcoin hit a record high of $125,835 in October. During the same period, gold reached $4,381 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and tariffs.
Stocks surged to record highs, especially with the artificial intelligence trend. The S&P 500 has risen 17% since November 2024, with defense stocks leading the way in Europe. Asian markets also gained strength thanks to a weak dollar and a tech rally. Tesla has experienced volatile performance due to its close ties with Trump. Shares doubled in two months following Elon Musk’s support, but political influences damaged the brand and sales fell. Despite this, it surpassed competitors such as Tesla, Ford, and GM.
Bond yields rose due to increased borrowing and Trump’s tax cut package. The US 30-year Treasury yield reached a record high of 4.66%, while Japan’s rose by 0.85%.
In trade, the tariffs that Trump defended with his “America is being robbed” rhetoric have begun to show their effect. The US trade deficit fell to its lowest level in two years in June, reaching $60.2 billion, while the gap with China narrowed by 70% to its lowest level in 21 years. According to experts, tariffs are putting more pressure on the EU than on China. For investors, the most important strategy in the new period will be to approach Trump’s political maneuvers calmly and flexibly.
