Tesla (TSLA.O) launched the electric car era in 2017 with the introduction of the Model 3 and the subsequent Model Y, becoming the world’s most valuable car manufacturer. However, even years later Tesla is still dependent on these two models — and it seems this will continue for a few more years.
The Cybertruck that followed proved to be a major disappointment. The company has no new model for future human drivers; Elon Musk has shifted his focus to autonomous driving and humanoid robots.
While a cheap electric vehicle project was canceled, only the Model 3 ($37,000) and Model Y ($40,000) remained on sale in their simpler and cheaper versions.Tesla hasn’t completely revamped any model in 20 years, whereas its Chinese competitors are releasing a new model almost every six months. Musk’s strategy is to position Tesla as a product that evolves with continuous software updates, like an iPhone.
However, according to experts, this strategy may not work forever.
S&P Global Mobility analyst Tom Libby notes that Tesla’s customer loyalty rate has fallen and only recovered after doubling its stimulus spending:The data shows that Tesla is now like other brands. Growth is unsustainable without new models.”
Tesla sales fell by 6% in the first nine months of this year. The removal of electric vehicle incentives by US President Donald Trump is also making sales difficult. Although revenues temporarily increased in the third quarter, profits fell by 37% — due to increased R&D expenses, tariffs, and declining carbon credit revenues.
Elon Musk focused more on robotaxi and robot projects than the car business at his recent earnings call. This is worrying investors: 88% of Tesla’s revenue still comes from vehicle sales.
While Chinese competitor BYD launched 17 SUV models in the same period, Tesla has only produced 6 vehicles since 2008.
The expected “hundreds of thousands of sales” of the Cybertruck did not materialize; only 16,000 units have been sold to date.Analyst Garrett Nelson‘s warning is clear:
“You can’t compete with such an aging product portfolio. They will pay the price.”
