According to a Deloitte report, US holiday season sales in 2025 will experience their slowest growth since the pandemic. Sales are projected to increase by only 2.9% – 3.4% between November 2025 – January 2026. Last year, this rate was 4.2%.
While holidays are a critical period for retailers, inflation, uncertain demand and the effects of trade policies are suppressing consumer spending. Deloitte official Brian McCarthy said, “Consumers may bring their shopping forward due to tariffs and rising costs. Inflation is pushing prices up, which will translate into spending.”
Retailers’ forecasts are mixed: Walmart and Macy’s raised their year-end expectations, while Target and Best Buy maintained their forecasts. On the other hand, toy giant Mattel revised its expectations downwards. PwC’s survey also revealed that Gen Z consumers in particular have started to cut back on their spending.
According to experts, this picture indicates that despite increased sales during the holiday season, growth will be at a much slower rate compared to previous years.
