China has experienced a sharp decline in exports of two critical minerals used in weapons, telecommunications, and solar cells in the last three months. This is linked to smuggling, which includes China’s top intelligence agency, and strict pre-shipment inspections through third countries.
According to customs data, exports of antimony and germanium fell by 88% and 95% respectively in June compared to January. China is the largest miner and refiner of both elements. Both are on the export ban list for 2023 and 2024.
In December 2023, exports to the US were completely banned in response to chip restrictions. Rare earth elements were also added to the same list, leading to a massive collapse in export volumes. This forced some car manufacturers in Europe and the US to halt production lines. However, following agreements between Washington and Beijing, the decline in rare earth exports quickly recovered, while germanium and antimony exports fell to record lows. This export decline coincided with China’s intensive controls against smuggling of critical mineral exports. China’s intelligence agency detected last week that shipments were being attempted through third countries. It reported that large quantities of antimony were being exported from Thailand and Mexico to the US, and that this was being done via transshipment by a Chinese company.China’s antimony exports to Thailand have decreased by 90% since peaking in April. There have been no exports to Mexico since April.
Prices for high-purity germanium have more than doubled since China imposed export restrictions in July 2023. Antimony prices have almost quadrupled since May of last year.
