The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that China needs to accelerate its structural reforms, explaining that it is imperative for the country to shift from an export and investment-driven model to a consumption-driven growth model. The institution also revised its 2025 growth forecast for China upwards.
The IMF’s statement emphasized that China’s achievement of a $1 trillion trade surplus for the first time and its projected share of approximately 40% of global growth by 2025 has increased international criticism.
Especially after US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the redirection of Chinese goods to developing countries has brought the “flooding markets with cheap products” debate back to the forefront. The IMF, noting that “excessive reliance on exports is unsustainable” under current conditions, delivered the following message: China’s priority is to shift away from an export and investment-driven structure towards a consumption-led growth model. This transformation requires stronger expansionary policies, reforms to reduce household savings, and the divestment of inefficient investments. The organization noted that the Chinese economy has demonstrated resilience despite multiple shocks in recent years; The IMF stated that weakness in the real estate sector, local government debt, and suppressed domestic demand will continue to pose challenges for policymakers. The IMF raised its growth forecast for 2025 from 4.8% to 5.0% and its 2026 forecast from 4.2% to 4.5%. It was also emphasized that additional reforms are necessary to strengthen the social security system and support the harmonization process in the real estate sector. These assessments are part of Beijing’s closely monitored “Article IV” review and are critical to international confidence in China’s economic governance …
