Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of US employment and inflation data. The data could provide important signals for Fed policy in the new year.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $4,290.33/ounce as of 0637 GMT. In contrast, bullion gold has risen 64% year-to-date, setting multiple new records. US gold futures contracts fell 0.4% to $4,316.40.
Tastylive Global Macro Head Ilya Spivak stated that the market is testing the previous peak around $4,380, adding, “The question is whether there is enough confidence for an upward breakout.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 76% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January. This week’s data flow will offer clues about the possible pace of easing in 2026. However, due to the 43-day government shutdown, some details will be missing from the October-November employment reports. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that inflation above target does not reflect fundamental supply and demand dynamics and that price pressures are closer to the 2% target. Markets are also awaiting weekly jobless claims and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation indicator. Gold, which does not provide yield, generally finds support in a low interest rate environment. In other metals, spot silver fell 1.4% to $63.03, retreating from Friday’s record high of $64.65. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade noted that strong industrial demand and tight inventories are maintaining the upward trend in silver. Spot platinum rose 1.3% to $1,806.46, while palladium increased 1% to $1,582.68.
