Consumer inflation in the US is estimated to have risen in June. This increase is expected to continue in the second half of the year, particularly due to the impact of new tariffs. This development could also affect the policy of the Fed, which has been cautious about interest rate cuts.
The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, to be released on Tuesday, is expected to reflect the recovery in gasoline prices and increases in tariff-sensitive products. According to economists, the CPI will rise by 0.3% in June, recording the highest monthly increase since January.
Annual inflation is expected to rise to 2.7%.Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is also estimated to increase by 0.3%. This increase is largely attributed to products susceptible to tariff effects, such as furniture and electronics.
While retail giants, particularly Walmart, are highlighting price increases, economists predict that the greatest price pressure will be seen in July and August.
The Trump administration will impose new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Japan, Canada, Brazil, and EU countries starting August 1.While major financial institutions like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs see a high probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September, they predict that goods prices will continue to rise in the coming months, but services prices will remain moderate.
This scenario could prevent overall inflation from turning into broad-based pressure and allow the Fed to act more flexibly in its interest rate policy.
