U.S. consumer prices likely rose modestly in February, driven by increasing gasoline costs as markets anticipated an escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Higher oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions are expected to intensify inflation pressures, potentially pushing consumer prices even further upward in March.
Economists estimate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in February, following a 0.2% gain in January, according to a Reuters survey.
On an annual basis, CPI is projected to have risen 2.4% year-over-year, matching January’s pace as last year’s elevated readings gradually fall out of calculations.
Gasoline prices likely climbed about 0.8% in February, reversing declines from the previous two months as energy markets reacted to rising geopolitical risks.
Since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February, pump prices have surged over 18%, reaching roughly $3.54 per gallon.
Excluding food and energy, core CPI inflation likely increased 0.2%, supported by softer used vehicle prices and slower growth in rents and airline fares.
However, tariffs and elevated input costs may continue pushing goods prices higher, suggesting inflation pressures could persist in coming months.
