Global wine production is projected to increase by 3% to 232 million hectoliters in 2025. However, this figure is approximately 7% below the average of the last five years. According to the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV), the main reason for this is the extreme and variable weather conditions experienced in both the northern and southern hemispheres.
OIV Director General John Barker told Reuters, “A large part of the low production over the last three years is really due to climatic variability.” “In some regions, there have been periods of heat and drought, followed by excessive rain or unexpected frost. And the fact that this has happened for the third year in a row is truly striking.” In Europe, France in particular has seen its lowest harvest figures since 1957, while Spanish production has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years. On the other hand, Italy has regained its position as the world’s largest wine producer with an 8% increase; this success is attributed to more favorable weather conditions in the region. In the US, the world’s fourth-largest wine producer, production is projected at 21.7 million hectoliters; although showing a 3% increase compared to last year, it is still well below historical peaks and the five-year average. In the Southern Hemisphere, production recovered by 7% after three consecutive years of decline; South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil were among the leaders. However, this recovery was still 5% below the five-year average. The expected limited production increase could help stabilize inventories in the face of slowing demand in mature markets, declining consumption in China, and ongoing uncertainty in global trade, according to the OIV. “Lower production can be really challenging for individual producers and regions… but from a macroeconomic point of view, this is a positive situation because it ensures that production and consumption are roughly balanced,” noted Barker.
