China has signaled a softening in relations with the U.S. by suspending some retaliatory tariffs, but US soybeans are still subject to a 13% tariff. This decision comes after the summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in South Korea last week.
The State Council Tariff Commission announced that it will remove tariffs of up to 15% on some U.S. agricultural products starting November 10. However, the 10% tariffs imposed during what Trump called “Independence Day” will remain in effect. Analysts interpret this move as a continuation of “trade peace” between the two countries. Even Rogers Pay of Trivium China said, “This shows that the parties are in agreement and that the deal could be permanent.” Nevertheless, buying soy from the US is still not economically viable for Chinese buyers. Brazilian products are far more attractive in the market due to their price advantage. An international trading company official said, “Even with this change, we don’t expect China to resume purchasing from the U.S.” Brazilian soybeans are being sold at a premium of $2.25–$2.30 under the Chicago contract for December shipments, while the U.S. price of $2.40 is not considered competitive. While the White House has stated that China will purchase at least 12 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. by the end of 2025, Beijing has not confirmed these figures. In 2024, China imported only 20% of its total soybeans from the U.S. This rate was 41% in 2016.
Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang attributed the fluctuations in agricultural trade to the tariffs imposed by the US and said, “The two countries are important agricultural partners; we must create favorable conditions for cooperation.”
Furthermore, the Chinese government announced that it will suspend the 24% additional tariff and some export restrictions imposed in April for one year.
