More than $175 billion in U.S. tariff revenue could face refunds if the Supreme Court overturns President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, economists estimate.
The Penn-Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) calculated potential exposure using product-level tariff rates and country-specific duties imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
The Supreme Court may rule as soon as Friday on the legality of the IEEPA-based tariffs, creating uncertainty for federal finances.
If struck down, importers are expected to seek large-scale refunds from U.S. Customs and Border Protection for duties paid over the past year.
Refunds of this scale would exceed combined fiscal 2025 budgets for the Departments of Transportation and Justice.
PWBM estimates roughly $500 million per day in IEEPA tariff collections, totaling about $179 billion since February 2025.
Alternative calculations using Treasury customs data produced similar estimates, ranging between $175 billion and $176 billion.
The model also accounts for shifting tariff policies, including revised rates for South Korea and changes to punitive duties on Brazilian exports.
