China’s coal production is projected to rise 0.7% in 2026 to 4.86 billion tons, marking the slowest growth this decade.
The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association expects output to increase by 35 million tons, despite falling imports for a second consecutive year.
Coal imports are forecast to drop 5.1% to 465 million tons, partly due to Indonesia halting spot exports and tightening production quotas.
Indonesia’s proposed output cuts and reinstated export tariffs have fueled expectations of a sharp decline in shipments to China.
Authorities say China may draw on inventories as domestic consumption growth outpaces supply expansion this year.
“If imports fall more significantly, domestic production can still rise,” the association noted, highlighting flexibility in local supply.
Coal-fired power generation declined in 2025 for the first time in a decade, while plant utilization rates continue falling, underscoring a structural energy transition.
